Box Office Predictions: 'Ender's Game' or Will 'Free Birds' Fly?
1) Ender's Game- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
My gut instinct is that Enders Game is going to disappoint this weekend. Adobe started tracking social media responses to upcoming films, and singled Enders Game out as one of the films most likely to crash and burn this season. I’m going to lowball this, but other prognosticators think this can do over 30M.
2) Free Birds- 22M Weekend, 22M Total
I see a lot of low numbers for Free Birds, but the marketplace is very largely adult right now. Even Enders Game doesn’t feel like a kids movie, so I don’t know if families will flock to it or not. November has been pretty kind to family films. A slew of Disney/Pixar movies, as well as Dreamworks movies, have really conditioned families to watch animated films in November.
3) Last Vegas- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
Also tracking low, but I think will overperform, is Last Vegas. If nothing, old people will roll out for the Morgan Freeman/Michael Douglas/Kevin Kline/Robert DeNiro flick. This is like a raunchier version of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
4) Gravity- 14M Weekend, 217M Total
Gravity will dip again about 33%.
5) Bad Grandpa- 12M Weekend, 48M Total
These films typically dip more than 50% in week 2.
6) Captain Phillips- 8M Weekend, 80M Total
Another small dip will keep Captain Phillips still in the game.
7) Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2- 4M Weekend, 105M Total
Cloudy will have a harsher drop this week because of Free Birds, but has really played a good “long game”.
8) 12 Years A Slave- 3M Weekend, 7M Total
12 Years A Slave will expand a bit more this weekend, and will pull in another nice chunk.
9) Carrie- 3M Weekend, 30M Total
Carrie will drop another (at least) 50% this weekend. Especially post-Halloween.
10) About Time- 2M Weekend, 2M Total
This is a bold prediction, but it really only needs about 11,400K per screen to get to this total, on about 175 screens. My alternative prediction for 10th place would be Escape Plan, which will also make about 2M this weekend.